US Evaluates Future of Aukus Submarine Pact Amidst 'America First' Policy

The United States has initiated a review of the Aukus submarine arrangement with Australia and the UK, focusing on aligning the multi-billion dollar deal with its "America First" policy. While both allies express confidence in the agreement’s future, the internal reevaluation and subsequent military spending pressure raise questions about the pact's long-term trajectory amidst geopolitical tensions with China.

The US has launched a review of its multi-billion dollar submarine deal with the UK and Australia, indicating that the security pact must align with President Biden's "America First" agenda. As part of the Aukus trilateral agreement, Australia is set to acquire its first nuclear-powered submarines from the US, enhancing military collaboration aimed at countering China.

Officials from both Australia and the UK have sought to downplay the significance of the US review, framing it as a routine reassessment for a new administration. The move comes as the White House pressures both countries to increase military spending, a request partially acknowledged by Britain, while Australia has largely resisted elevating its defense budget to 3.5% of GDP, as desired by the US.

The Aukus agreement, valued at approximately £176bn ($239bn; A$368bn), was established in 2021 when the nations had different leaders. A US defense official stated that the review is meant to ensure that this initiative remains aligned with current US objectives, emphasizing the necessity for ally contributions towards collective defense.

While Defence Minister Richard Marles maintains optimism about the agreement's continuation, he acknowledged Australia's imperative need for an advanced submarine capability. Meanwhile, some advocate for a more self-sufficient defense strategy within Australia, contrasting with the past government's cancellation of a French submarine deal in favor of Aukus.

A spokesperson from the Australian government described the review as a standard procedure for a new administration, mirroring the UK's recent reevaluation of its agreements. There is expressed bipartisan support for the deal within the US, indicating a desire to maintain close cooperation.

Jennifer Kavanagh from the think tank Defense Priorities stated that a review could prompt the US to reconsider its submarine capacities that are currently stretched thin, questioning whether Australia would utilize the submarines to suit US strategic needs, especially regarding potential conflicts over Taiwan.

The review may also lead to a redirection of the Aukus agreement, possibly moving away from submarine provision towards enhancing long-range weapons technology. Kavanagh warned that any US pullback from the deal would likely be seen as a victory by China, which has consistently criticized the Aukus initiative.

From 2027, the pact will facilitate the US and UK deploying a limited number of nuclear submarines in Perth, Australia. Additionally, the deal includes plans for Australia to purchase three second-hand Virginia-class submarines, with the option for two more, and to jointly develop a new class of nuclear-powered submarines in collaboration with the UK.

The Aukus security alliance continues to draw criticism from China, with concerns that it could contribute to an escalating arms race in the region.