Macron's Presidency on the Brink: A Political Storm in France

After eight years in office, Emmanuel Macron's position as president is coming under increasing pressure as France's political crisis escalates. Macron once called himself maître des horloges - master of the clocks - but his command of timing is not what it was. For the third time in a year, his choice of prime minister has resigned, and opinion polls suggest almost three-quarters of voters think the president should step down too.

Macron has repeatedly stated he will not leave office early, yet France is now waiting to find out if a new government can be formed or if he has to dissolve parliament.

How did we get here?

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced his resignation at the start of a political drama on Monday, after only 26 days in the job. Hours later, he stated he would stay on for another 48 hours to negotiate stability for the country.

This twist follows a tumultuous political period starting with Macron's decision to call a snap parliamentary election in June 2024, resulting in a hung parliament where his centrist allies lost their majority and now seek alliances with other parties.

It's all about France's debt

The substantial challenge for Lecornu and his predecessors has been to tackle France's crippling national debt, which was €3.4tn at the beginning of the year, accounting for nearly 114% of GDP. This debt position is the third highest in the eurozone.

Previous prime ministers have struggled with confidence votes as they attempted austerity budgets. Lecornu himself did not last long enough to present a budget plan, facing backlash soon after detailing his cabinet.

What happens now?

Lecornu is currently in discussions with party representatives and may have until Wednesday to propose a stability plan. Several options exist:

• If Lecornu can unify the centre-ground parties, Macron can name a new prime minister. However, this would likely require suspending recent pension reforms.
• If unsuccessful, Macron may have to accept responsibility, leading to fresh elections that could benefit Marine Le Pen's National Rally.
• Though Macron's term ends in 18 months, his leadership is under scrutiny, with calls for his resignation mounting.
• Alternatively, parliament could achieve a limited budget compromise, although French politics is rarely characterized by collaboration.

Who are the key figures in this crisis?

Marine Le Pen and her National Rally are ready for elections while Jean-Luc Mélenchon has called for Macron's impeachment. The Socialists have expressed willingness to dialogue under specific conditions, further illustrating the fragmented political landscape.

Has Macron run out of road?

Following a prime ministerial resignation, Macron was seen walking along the River Seine, symbolizing his solitude amidst burgeoning political crises. Urged to appoint a technocrat prime minister and manage an orderly exit, his political maneuverability appears increasingly constrained as he faces some of the most challenging decisions of his presidency.