Zelensky and Trump Set to Sign Preliminary Minerals Agreement Amid Security Tensions

Zelensky aims to solidify Ukraine’s resource negotiations, but Trump’s reluctance to provide broad security assurances complicates the stakes.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington on Friday to sign an initial agreement focused on the sharing of Ukraine's mineral resources, according to Trump's statements. The bilateral deal is viewed by Zelensky as a foundational step, with hopes for further agreements that include U.S. security guarantees to counter potential Russian aggression. However, Trump has indicated that the U.S. will limit its security commitments, suggesting that such responsibilities should primarily fall to European nations.

Further complicating matters, Trump downplayed the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO—a longstanding goal of Zelensky. In recent comments, Trump claimed that the operations of American workers in Ukraine's rare earth metals sector would inherently provide "automatic security" for the nation, urging Zelensky to abandon hopes of NATO membership. He also hinted at a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, asserting, "We're going to make a deal with Russia and Ukraine to stop killing people." Conversely, Zelensky warned that without security guarantees, achieving a ceasefire would be impossible, emphasizing the need for a "NATO path or something similar."

The U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal, which Zelensky’s government formally approved, is aimed at generating an "investment fund" to aid reconstruction efforts in Ukraine. It originated from negotiations initiated by Zelensky last year, intended to provide the U.S. with a solid incentive to maintain its support for Ukraine. Tensions have, however, built between the two leaders over the fine details of the agreement. Although initial discussions included a request by Trump for access to $500 billion in mineral wealth, that demand has reportedly been retracted.

Further discrepancies have arisen regarding the characterization of the agreement itself. Trump has heralded it as a "very big agreement" that would facilitate the U.S. recouping funds disbursed in aid to Ukraine, while Zelensky refers to it as merely a "framework agreement," one which could lead to more comprehensive arrangements.

Trump has expressed a desire for a swift conclusion to the conflict in Ukraine and has initiated efforts to reset relations with Russia. Following a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, delegations from both nations engaged in talks in Saudi Arabia, notably excluding Ukraine from the discussions. In response, Zelensky has accused the U.S. of enabling Putin's return to global prominence and accused Trump of operating within a "Russian disinformation space."

Ukraine is rich in natural resources, containing an estimated 5% of the world’s "critical raw materials." Nonetheless, challenges remain in accessing these resources, especially since many have been captured by Russian forces. Reports suggest that resources valued at $350 billion still lie in territories occupied by Russia. Additionally, logistical hurdles exist; Ukraine must first address significant threats posed by unexploded landmines, particularly in its eastern regions, where about a quarter of the land is contaminated.

Separately, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is set to meet both Trump and Zelensky during the week to discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine, signaling the international ramifications of the conflict.