New Analysis Reveals Significant Underestimation of Gaza Casualties

Wed Jul 02 2025 05:08:12 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)
New Analysis Reveals Significant Underestimation of Gaza Casualties

A research team has determined that the death toll in Gaza from traumatic injuries is likely significantly higher than previously reported, suggesting urgent need for updated humanitarian assessments.


According to a study published in The Lancet, the death toll in Gaza due to traumatic injuries from the conflict may be as high as 64,300, substantially higher than the figures reported by local authorities. This new statistic raises concerns about the accuracy of casualty reports and highlights the necessity for comprehensive health assessments in war zones.

In the aftermath of Israeli airstrikes and military operations in Gaza, researchers have found that fatalities may have been massively underreported. An analysis conducted by epidemiologists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine posits that the death toll from traumatic injuries in the first nine months of conflict is approximately 64,300, significantly exceeding the 37,900 figure provided by the Palestinians’ Ministry of Health.

This peer-reviewed study emphasizes that the United Nations has been relying on the casualty statistics from the Hamas-led health ministry, which Israel points out as potentially inflated. However, the researchers suggest that the actual numbers may reflect a grim reality where the reported death toll undercounts the profound impact of the conflict.

The analysis takes into account various factors and indicates that about 2.9 percent of Gaza's population before the war has succumbed to injuries, equivalent to one in every 35 residents. Alarmingly, 59 percent of those who lost their lives were women, children, or elderly individuals, raising serious concerns about the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the region. The study also noted that the fatality figures do not include deaths resulting from malnutrition, diseases due to lack of clean water, or the collapse of the healthcare infrastructure amid ongoing violence.

Experts like Mike Spagat, who specializes in calculating war casualties, assert that this new evidence points to a likely underreporting of the true scale of devastation faced by the Gazan population. The research findings underline the urgent need for comprehensive assessments and acknowledgment of the humanitarian needs arising from the ongoing conflict.

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