India's Population Dilemma: Balancing Growth Amidst Declining Fertility

India, now the most populous nation with 1.45 billion people, faces a paradox as southern states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu push for higher birth rates to mitigate declining demographics. With falling fertility rates leading to a potential ageing crisis, leaders fear losing political sway and financial resources, igniting a debate on how to sustain growth while managing an imminent population shift.

India's recent elevation to the status of the world's most populous country, surpassing China with nearly 1.45 billion people, has initiated an intriguing discourse about childbearing amidst a backdrop of declining fertility rates. Leaders from the southern Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have started advocating for larger families, ignited by concerns over low birth rates and a rapidly ageing population.

In Andhra Pradesh, officials are contemplating incentives for families to encourage more children and have abolished their previous "two-child policy" for local elections. Neighbouring Tamil Nadu is echoing this sentiment, emphasizing the urgency of increasing birth rates. This push comes in response to falling fertility levels across many states; India’s average has dropped from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to the current rate of two. Particularly in southern states, fertility rates have dipped below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman, with Kerala and Tamil Nadu recording rates as low as 1.4.

These demographic transformations pose critical challenges to electoral representation and federal funding. States such as Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh fear upcoming electoral seat realignments may disadvantage them, primarily benefiting populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Demographers have pointed out how these southern states, historically more efficient in population control, could find themselves facing political marginalization despite being economic powerhouses.

Moreover, India is on the brink of an unprecedented demographic dilemma: the first delimitation of electoral seats scheduled for 2026. Previously, significant shifts in populations have not led to geographical representation adjustments, and the anticipated changes could drastically influence resource allocation and financial stability for southern states. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other officials have suggested that any changes in fiscal policy would be approached cautiously.

The swiftly falling fertility rates also herald a rapid ageing of the population, predicted to escalate from 7% to 14% in a mere 28 years—substantially quicker than the transition seen in countries with comparable conditions. This demographic shift is exacerbated by India's declining socio-economic conditions, where systems for elderly support remain undeveloped.

Also stirring this ongoing dialogue is the recent statement from Mohan Bhagwat, head of the right-wing Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, advocating for families to have at least three children to secure India's future. While these apprehensions resonate, many population experts challenge the notion that low fertility levels inevitably lead to societal collapse; rather, they indicate a problematic transition without effective policy interventions.

Countries like South Korea and Greece, facing similar drops in birth rates, emphasize the need to adapt to changing workforce demographics. As India’s productivity hinges on a stable, active working-age population, extending retirement ages and enhancing social support becomes critical for maintaining economic growth.

As India grapples with these multifaceted population challenges, experts assert the necessity to harness its demographic dividend effectively. They advocate for urgent policy changes focused on health, social security enhancements, and job creation before the opportunity window closes in 2047.