In brief
Official statistics show the U.S. economy grew at a 2.2% annualised pace during Trump’s return to power, outpacing other G‑7 leaders. Inflation rose to 3.7%, higher than the 3% he inherited, largely driven by tariffs and the Middle‑East conflict. Job growth slowed to about 34,000 new jobs per month, compared with 122,000 seen under Biden, while household income remains rising but unevenly distributed. Government borrowing has surged to over 6% of GDP, pushing borrowing costs and mortgage rates upward. These dynamics together paint a mixed picture of the economic landscape in President Trump’s second term.
The U.S. came back to the White House in January 2025 with a press briefing full of upbeat claims about a booming economy. A neutral look at the data shows a mixed reality.
GDP and Growth
The latest release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the U.S. gross domestic product expanding at a 2.2% annualised rate, the fastest increase seen by any G‑7 member during the period after Trump’s return. That figure masks a modest 3.2% rise in nominal GDP since the end of 2024.
Inflation Dynamics
Consumer prices have climbed to a 3.7% year‑over‑year rate, four‑point‑three percentage points above the 3% level he inherited. Economists attribute the rise to tariffs introduced on 2 April 2025 and to higher global energy prices driven by the Israel‑Iran conflict.
Jobs and Employment
While the economy adds about 34,000 jobs each month under Trump, that figure is a fraction of the 122,000 monthly additions recorded during the final year of the preceding administration. Manufacturing employment sits at 12.6 million, slightly below the 12.9 million seen in January 2025.
Household Income and Tax Impact
Median household income rose 2.6% in 2025 to an inflation‑adjusted $87,460, the highest on record. However, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy estimates that the middle five‑fifths of households are about $1,700 worse off in 2026, with the poorest quintile suffering a $750 decline, largely due to tax cuts and expiring subsidies.
Public Debt and Borrowing Costs
The federal deficit stands at $2 trillion for the year to September 2026, roughly 6% of GDP. Forecasts project the debt ratio could reach above 8% by 2030, raising concerns about future financial stability. The 10‑year Treasury yield has climbed past 5%, the highest since the 2007‑2008 crisis, translating into higher mortgage rates – currently around 7.4% for a 30‑year loan.
Conclusion
Official metrics confirm that the economy grew, but at a more conservative pace than the administration’s optimistic claims. Inflation, job creation and rising debt add layers of complexity to the economic picture in President Trump’s second term.
