Has Trump-Putin Dialogue Any Real Chance of Ending the Ukraine War?

Despite claims from Donald Trump to end the Ukraine war through his upcoming talks with Vladimir Putin, historical precedents and entrenched positions suggest rapid progress is unlikely.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine shows no sign of resolution, with Russia continuing its aggressive military campaign since the full-scale invasion that began in February 2022. Recent aerial strikes targeting Ukrainian cities have increased civilian casualties, unfolding against a backdrop of drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. In light of this escalating violence, the Kremlin has announced a forthcoming meeting between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin, wherein Trump has stated, "I'm here to get [the war] over with."

However, history suggests these talks may not yield favorable results; previous discussions facilitated by Trump from May to July failed to narrow differences between Russia and Ukraine. Trump's desire for a peace initiative seems ambitious given the substantial divergence in the demands from both sides. Russia's preconditions to cease hostilities include mandates for Ukraine to recognize Russian sovereignty over territories like Crimea and to adopt a stance of demilitarization and neutrality. These "maximalist" demands are seen as a framework for Ukraine's surrender rather than a basis for genuine negotiation, as highlighted by Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya.

Despite this bleak outlook, U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, assert that a clearer understanding of Russia's conditions exists since a recent meeting with Putin. Yet, Putin himself has reaffirmed that Russia's objectives have remained consistent, signaling little room for negotiation.

One potential motivation for engaging in talks may be Russia's desire to avoid further sanctions threatened by Trump. The Kremlin may seek to present itself as flexible in discussions in order to sway American opinion in its favor, despite the overarching unwillingness to concede ground.

Trump's historical alignment with Russia complicates matters further. During his previous presidency, he shocked observers by appearing to support Russia over Ukraine. Although he has recently indicated frustration with Putin, Trump's tendency not to outright condemn Russian aggression raises concerns in Ukraine regarding potential concessions that might be made without proper dialogue.

Ukraine's government, keenly aware of the risks of excluding itself from these negotiations, is advocating for involvement in any resolution discussions. Ukrainian MP Iryna Herashchenko has warned that concessions related to territorial integrity might emerge if Kyiv remains uninvolved. President Volodymyr Zelensky recognized the necessity of Ukrainian participation, asserting the need for a bold approach from Russia as well.

Despite any potential triadic discussions among Trump, Putin, and Zelensky, the sizable gaps in positions make it questionable whether such a meeting would lead to meaningful progress toward peace. The ongoing fighting, humanitarian crises, and political maneuverings surrounding this conflict highlight the complexities that challenge any quick resolution.