Trump's Return to Power: Implications for Africa's Political Landscape

The upcoming potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency raises critical questions about Africa's geopolitical landscape. His transactional and populist approach to foreign policy may hinder multilateral initiatives, as evidenced by the decline in US-led peacekeeping efforts, complicating the continent's ability to navigate ongoing conflicts.

The unpredictability of Donald Trump's potential return to the White House could have significant ramifications for Africa. Experts anticipate that Trump's operational style will remain consistent, prioritizing transactional politics over traditional diplomatic practices that focus on long-term, principled engagement.

During Barack Obama's presidency, significant strides were made in collaborating with the African Union (AU) to reform United Nations funding procedures to ensure reliable support for peacekeeping missions. However, under Trump's first term, many of these efforts were sidelined or minimized, leading to the closure of critical peacekeeping operations in countries like Mali and Sudan. The Biden administration has continued this trend of diminished multilateralism regarding peace missions.

The fundamental shift from the "liberal peace" concept—promoting democracy, justice, and open markets—to what some refer to as the "illiberal peace" has raised concerns among observers. The Trump administration emphasized direct deals with authoritarian leaders, favoring outcomes that eschew intricate negotiations for straightforward agreements focused on American interests.

For instance, Trump's interactions with Egypt's President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, whom Trump affectionately dubbed "my favorite dictator," led to US mediation in the contentious Nile waters dispute with Ethiopia. Trump's dealings, often described as opportunistic and directly transactional, contrast sharply with the collaborative frameworks that characterized previous administrations.

As conflicts in regions like Sudan—and the broader Horn of Africa—worsen, Trump is unlikely to prioritize meaningful intervention unless presented with circumstances involving American casualties. This negligence toward humanitarian crises raises fears that unrestrained actions by regional leaders might escalate into broader conflicts without US constraint.

Furthermore, the US's military perspective under Trump may shift as he navigates relations with Middle Eastern allies. This includes managing military bases in locations such as Djibouti and evaluating the US's footprint in Africa amid ongoing security threats posed by groups like al-Shabab.

The situation in West Africa, where Russia's Wagner Group gains influence, adds another layer of complexity, particularly as Trump's rhetoric surrounding Putin may alter traditional US alliances. Leaders in the region may find themselves adapting to this potential shift, though apprehensions about the implications—especially concerning human rights and democratic governance—remain prevalent.

Diplomatic relations between the US and African nations will continue to evolve rapidly, particularly as the AU prepares for leadership changes in early 2025. The trajectory of these relationships hangs in the balance, dependent largely on Trump's unpredictable approach to governance and international diplomacy. As Africa's leaders convene to elect new leadership for the AU, they will be tasked with navigating an increasingly precarious geopolitical landscape influenced significantly by the potential return of Donald Trump.