India’s Strategic Shift: Engaging with the Taliban

India's Foreign Secretary's meeting with Taliban officials illustrates a recalibration in India's approach to Afghanistan. While this outreach opens new avenues for trade and connectivity, it also raises concerns about aligning with a regime with questionable human rights records.

 

India's foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, recently met with Amir Khan Muttaqi, the acting foreign minister of Afghanistan's Taliban government, in Dubai, marking the highest level of diplomatic engagement since Kabul fell to the Taliban over three years ago. This meeting indicates a significant policy shift as India grapples with the changing geopolitical landscape in the region, particularly after the collapse of two decades of investment in Afghanistan's democracy, which included military training and significant developmental projects.

The backdrop of this outreach includes the erosion of India's strategic influence in Afghanistan, where regional rivals, particularly Pakistan and China, have gained ground. During the meeting, the Taliban expressed a keen interest in fortifying political and economic relations with India, highlighting its potential as a "significant regional and economic power." Proposals to enhance trade connections and utilize Iran's Chabahar port as an alternative to Pakistan's ports were also discussed.

Michael Kugelman, an expert from the Wilson Center, commented on the meeting's significance, stating that it effectively grants the Taliban a level of de facto legitimacy it has been seeking from the international community. India's engagement with the Taliban, which contrasts sharply with its historical stance, showcases a diplomatic achievement for the Taliban regime.

Since the Taliban's resurgence, countries have varied in their approaches to diplomatic relations with the regime, balancing the need for engagement against concerns about human rights violations. While China actively collaborates with the Taliban, no nations have formally acknowledged their government thus far; however, about 40 have maintained some form of connection.

Experts caution that India's latest outreach should be seen in context. Jayant Prasad, a former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, emphasized that India had not completely severed contacts with the Taliban in past years and views this new engagement as an escalation rather than an abrupt shift. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar underscored India's historical and cultural ties with Afghanistan during discussions in Parliament, noting the extensive investments that India has made, amounting to over $3 billion in development projects.

This recent outreach comes amid heightened tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with Islamabad accusing the Taliban of providing sanctuary to the Pakistani Taliban, leading to military strikes that resulted in casualties on Afghan soil. Importantly, this shift could offer India leverage in its long-standing rivalry with Pakistan by bolstering its connection with a government once seen as Pakistan's ally.

Moreover, India aims to enhance connectivity with Central Asia, a region it cannot directly access due to Pakistan's restrictions on transit rights. Engaging with the Taliban could facilitate transportation links that bypass those limitations, particularly through revitalizing the Chabahar port in tandem with Iran.

However, experts highlight the risks inherent in aligning with a regime like the Taliban, which has not prioritized reform since the 1990s and remains linked with global terror groups. Kugelman pointed out that while India may hope for constructive engagement to reduce threats, the core question regarding the Taliban's reliability as a partner remains a concern.

Contrastingly, Prasad views engagement with the Taliban as essential, arguing that Western isolationism would not benefit the Afghan populace. He believes that strategic engagement could encourage reforms within the Taliban, pushing for improved rights for women and social freedoms.

As India maneuvers its relationship with the Taliban, balancing strategic interests, trade aspirations, and humanitarian considerations remains a complex challenge in this evolving political landscape.