Rising Tensions in South Asia: A Path to De-escalation Between India and Pakistan?

With escalating military tensions between India and Pakistan, experts emphasize the need for international intervention to prevent further conflict. Historical precedents show that previous setbacks were defused through global pressure, a situation that appears lacking today.

As the situation between India and Pakistan reaches a critical point, global leaders are increasingly concerned about an escalating conflict between the two nuclear-armed nations. The recent military actions, including airstrikes by India and claims from Pakistan of downing Indian jets, have not only heightened tensions but also sparked nationalist sentiments on both sides. Observers note that the absence of significant international oversight could exacerbate the crisis into a full-blown conflict.

Historically, external powers, particularly the United States, have played a crucial role in de-escalating conflicts between the two nations, as seen in incidents from 2016 and 2019. However, experts like Ayesha Siddiqa from King’s College London warn that the current conflict lacks the same level of intervention, which is perilous for regional stability. “It is alarming that there are no global forces monitoring this escalating situation,” she remarked.

While U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called for calm, contradictions arise within the U.S. administration. Vice-President JD Vance has suggested that a potential war is “none of our business,” indicating a significant shift in American foreign policy focus away from South Asia. This disengagement could leave both countries to navigate their crises independently, increasing the probability of heightened military retaliation.

Contrary to this, global powers, particularly China, which has vested economic interests and military ties with Pakistan, may also influence the equation. China has showcased its commitment to Pakistan through significant investments and has unresolved border disputes with India.

As key negotiators, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE could serve as mediators, leveraging their influence over both nations to foster dialogue. Saudi Arabia's recent diplomatic actions demonstrate a keen interest in addressing tensions, given their long-standing economic ties with Pakistan.

Experts argue that a perception of victory on both sides may provide a pathway to de-escalation. For India, the airstrikes are framed as efforts to hold Pakistan accountable for terrorism, while Pakistan's military aims to demonstrate its resolve by showcasing their military prowess. The fluctuating goals of each side will dictate the trajectory of this situation, with Indian military objectives seeming to evolve regularly.

In conclusion, unless strong international mediation occurs, the risk of a protracted conflict remains high. With India and Pakistan close to potential war, the need for diplomatic solutions to address underlying tensions is more urgent than ever, as both nations seek to navigate a perilous path ahead.