Niger's Uranium Conflict: A Strategic Shift Amidst Tensions with France

The deteriorating relations between Niger's military junta and France have led to the regime taking operational control of uranium mining, creating financial turmoil for Orano and raising concerns about Europe's nuclear energy supply amidst geopolitical shifts towards Russia and non-Western allies.

Niger's military rulers have made headlines this week by asserting operational control over the local mining firm Somaïr, owned by French state nuclear company Orano. This move marks a significant escalation in the tension between Niger and France following the coup in July 2023 that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, a key ally of Paris.

Despite contributing less than 5% to global uranium production, Niger provided around 25% of uranium supplies to European nuclear power plants in 2022, making its mining sector strategically important. The decision to commandeer the company comes at a precarious time for France, which continues to rely heavily on nuclear power—with approximately 65% of its electricity generation sourced from its 56 nuclear reactors.

President Emmanuel Macron is facing multifaceted challenges, as Orano's potential withdrawal from Niger coincides with other setbacks in Africa, including Chad's recent termination of a defense agreement with France and Senegal's push for closing a French military base. This reveals a broader trend of declining French influence across the region.

Orano has already faced dire operational challenges following a trade blockade imposed by West African neighbors after the coup. Although the blockade was lifted, logistical issues, such as a closed border with Benin, hindered the company's ability to resume exports. Facing mounting financial pressures, Orano was forced to halt production in November, as they accumulated significant stocks of uranium concentrate worth approximately $210 million.

Analysts suggest that, while France can potentially offset the short-term impacts by sourcing uranium from alternative countries such as Australia and Namibia, the geopolitical implications of relying more heavily on suppliers like Russia create a paradox. Following sanctions against Moscow due to the Ukraine crisis, the reliance on Russian uranium has increased by over 70%, which contradicts the EU's efforts to exert economic pressure on the Kremlin.

Interestingly, Niger's regime has expressed interest in diversifying its international partnerships, exploring relationships beyond traditional Western allies. Recent visits of Niger's Prime Minister to Iran have raised eyebrows in light of possible uranium trade discussions, highlighting a strategic pivot in Niger's foreign relations.

As Niger’s government solidifies its power and continues its nationalistic stance, the future of Orano and its operations faces uncertainty. The longstanding resentment towards foreign exploitation of uranium resources, combined with newfound financial leverage through oil exports from a recently constructed pipeline, empowers Niger's leadership to challenge former colonial ties.

In light of this development, the relationship between Niger and France is likely to remain fraught. While the repercussions for Orano and the French nuclear sector unfold, the broader implications for energy security and geopolitical alignments, particularly concerning Russia and non-Western partnerships, remain significant topics for future scrutiny.