Japan's Ruling Coalition Faces Potential Majority Loss in Key Election

Mon Jul 21 2025 04:16:52 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)
Japan's Ruling Coalition Faces Potential Majority Loss in Key Election

Exit polls indicate a challenging future for Japan's ruling party, as public dissatisfaction grows amidst economic pressures.


In a major political shift, Japan's ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, may lose its majority as voters expressed discontent over rising costs and trade concerns.

With exit polls revealing disappointing predictions for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner, Komeito, the party faces a precarious situation ahead of a crucial election. Voters participated in the polls as the country grapples with economic uncertainty, inflation, and political scandals, raising concerns over the efficiency of the current government structure.

Analyses show that the LDP and Komeito will struggle to retain their controlling influence over the upper chamber, with projections suggesting they may secure between 32 and 51 out of the 248 seats needed for a majority. This would mark a historical low for the coalition, which has dominated Japan's political landscape for decades.

The political climate has turned increasingly hostile toward Ishiba, who has received criticism for his inability to effectively address pressing issues such as the cost of living crisis, particularly concerning staple goods like rice. Furthermore, various scandals linked to the LDP have compounded public disenchantment.

Should the LDP lose its upper house majority, it could spell trouble for Ishiba's leadership, likely prompting calls for his resignation. Historical patterns indicate that previous prime ministers from the LDP who suffered similar electoral setbacks stepped down shortly thereafter. Prominent party figures like Sanae Takaichi and Takayuki Kobayashi may seize the opportunity to challenge for the leadership amid a leadership vacuum.

Adding to the complexity, the election witnessed the rise of the Sanseito party, which attracted conservative voters with its strong anti-immigration platform. The party's advocacy for isolationist policies resonated with constituents amid rising foreign population levels and associated economic issues. With early estimates suggesting Sanseito could win seven seats, its success reflects a broader dissatisfaction with how the LDP has managed immigration and foreign relations.

As Japan navigates these turbulent waters, the combination of political and economic challenges will be critical in shaping the responses of the ruling coalition and influencing the future of US-Japan trade negotiations.

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