Power Struggle Intensifies in Philippine Political Landscape Post-Elections

Following a mid-term election that highlighted fractures in their once-strong alliance, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte are now at a crossroads. Stripped of their former political strength, both must navigate a complex web of power dynamics as impeachment whispers grow louder against the backdrop of public discontent and shifting loyalties within the Senate.

The Philippines has engaged in a renewed power struggle as recent mid-term elections have shaken the political ground that President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. and Vice-President Sara Duterte once solidly occupied. The two leading figures, who united for a landslide victory in the 2022 presidential elections, now find themselves at odds, accusing each other of threats and incompetence, prompting fears about the future of their administration.

Election results signal troubling times for the Marcos camp, where only six of the twelve newly elected senators can be claimed as allies. This contrasts sharply with the typical outcomes where incumbent presidents secure a majority of favorable candidates. Political observers note that this mid-term election serves as a pulse check on the two powerful families; while the Senate seats were claimed, four went to the Duterte coalition, further indicating the shifting dynamics of political alliances.

The disagreement that has infiltrated the Marcos-Duterte relationship has grown increasingly toxic, exemplified by the congress's move to initiate impeachment proceedings against Sara Duterte, and President Marcos's controversial decision to send her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, to the International Criminal Court. Speculation suggests that if Sara is impeached, she may lose her chance at the presidency in future elections, despite her current positioning as a frontrunner.

Family ties dominate political leadership in the Philippines, and while the Dutertes and Marcoses feature prominently at the top of the political hierarchy, the elections revealed other influential families emerging as potential players in the political landscape. The Senate race attracted a number of candidates from extensive political backgrounds, and their loyalty may sway since ambitions for higher office reign supreme, prompting them to align with public sentiment.

Political scientist Cleve Arguelles emphasizes the electoral sensitivity of senators, many of whom see themselves as potential candidates for presidency or vice presidency, making it crucial for them to gauge public opinion and act accordingly. President Marcos's lower popularity amidst economic challenges serves as an ominous sign for the stability of his administration, as negative sentiments over his handling of the economy and the extradition of former President Duterte loom large.

Ironically, the open support of Sara Duterte has seen her resonate emotionally with the public, especially regarding her father's detention, portraying it as a substantial betrayal. This effective strategy has resulted in noticeable shifts in electoral behaviors, as evidenced by Imee Marcos's contentious decision to switch allegiance to the Duterte camp to maintain her own political viability.

What unfolds next remains uncertain as the impeachment trial, set to commence in July, could further polarize a nation already embroiled in political maneuvering. The current Senate only holds a small number of Marcos loyalists, meaning significant efforts must be made to navigate the political landscape and secure votes for an impeachment process that lacks precedent in Philippine history.

With the election revealing a notable appetite for candidates outside the traditional power struggle, the paths forward for both camps are fraught with uncertainty as they vie for public support and Senate loyalty in what promises to be a turbulent year ahead in Philippine politics.