The Shift in Power: Alawites Face Uncertainty in Post-Assad Syria

The recent power dynamics in Latakia, Syria, evoke deep fear amongst the Alawite population, historically linked to the Assad regime. Amidst a newly emerging order under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), many Alawites are concerned about potential repercussions for their past support of the regime. While HTS pledges to protect all minorities, apprehension remains high within the Alawite heartland as residents confront the reality of their transformed surroundings.

Noor's trembling hands gripped her thick winter coat as she made her way to the security station of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Latakia, a city once dominated by the Assad regime. Much like many Alawites in this Syrian heartland, she is caught in a complex web of fear and uncertainty following the regime's abrupt collapse. The Alawite sect comprises about 10% of Syria's population, and their congregated support for the Assad family makes them particularly vulnerable now that the regime has fallen.

Noor, disguised by a name to protect her identity, recounted the harrowing event of her family's forced eviction from their apartment by armed men affiliated with another rebel faction. With tears streaming down her face, she narrated how, just a few nights ago, her home was invaded while she and her children were in their pajamas. The situation has drastically transformed as HTS, which was once considered a terrorist organization by many Western states but has since become the de facto ruling body in the region, far removed from its previous alignment with al-Qaeda. No matter the claims of respecting all religions in Syria, the palpable fear among Latakia’s Alawite population remains widespread.

Witnesses note an unsettling atmosphere across the Alawite neighborhoods, where many people have chosen not to leave their homes for fear of retribution, fearing a reckoning for their past affiliations with the old regime. Noor, a grim representative of a longer line of residents seeking assistance, showed HTS security commander Abu Ayoub footage of the violent home invasion, pleading for the return of her belongings.

The recent shifts to HTS’s power have sparked protests and mixed reactions from various segments of society. Many who had lived in fear under Assad are now cautiously optimistic, while others express skepticism regarding HTS’s promises to protect all ethnic and sectarian groups. Abu Ayoub asserted that their intention was to restore justice, framing their role from revolutionaries to law-enforcers as a beneficial yet complicated transition.

While groups competing for control clash, the HTS continues to vie for legitimacy among those plagued by trauma, showing mixture of hope and despair. With calls of “Shabiha!” echoing, some locals remain unconvinced about the newfound ‘unity’ the HTS seeks to present, attributing past grievances to the high incidence of violence within the community.

Following several raids, HTS continues to maneuver through a landscape fraught with tension and upheaval. Noor, although thankful for HTS's intervention, remains apprehensive about returning home. She articulates the prevailing view among her community, revealing the emotional scars that the lengthy rule of the Assad regime has left, underscoring the challenges ahead in building trust amidst the remnants of oppression. Despite the vibrant celebrations marking the regime's demise, the Alawite community, long imbued with fear, now finds itself searching for safety in a transformed social order, caught between aspirations for peace and lingering shadows of their past allegiances.