In brief
Abu Dhabi is hosting a second day of high‑level talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States amid conflicting signals from both sides. While President Trump signals optimism for a breakthrough, Kremlin officials remain skeptical and have explicitly ruled out a ceasefire. European support remains tentative, and a brief ceasefire in Oleshky has shown only limited practical cooperation. The talks face questions of motive, leadership, and past stalling tactics, leaving observers uncertain whether this round will change the stalemate.
Abu Dhabi on Monday hosted the second day of high‑level talks among the United States, Ukraine and Russia, with the world watching to see whether a breakthrough can finally end the Ukraine war.
According to Xinhua, the delegations are preparing for a new session on Tuesday, following the first day of talks that began on Tuesday night. Trump’s optimism that a "big, beautiful agreement" could bring a lasting settlement is contrasted sharply with Moscow’s sceptical stance, in which the Kremlin has said it will not halt combat operations before the meeting.
During a November 5 meeting in Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump met Russia’s special presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev and pledged that the talks “might involve all of Europe.” Xinhua quoted Trump as saying the conversation was a positive step toward a global solution.
"This could be a big, beautiful agreement that might involve all of Europe," Trump said during his Washington meeting.
Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov, speaking late in October, emphasized that Moscow had no plans for a “real” ceasefire, adding that the “respite” normally offered to the Ukrainian side would not be granted. Putin’s administration has since left the future of the ceasefire open, as the Kremlin’s official stance in the week before the talks simply reiterated that the negotiation format would remain strictly trilateral.
Arab News noted that Kremlin confirmed the Abu Dhabi talks would stay between Russia, Ukraine and the United States despite interest from European powers in joining the process. The report emphasised that the trilateral format is a return to the earlier structure used in Geneva in February, when Russian delegation leader Vladimir Medinsky was perceived as an obstacle to genuine negotiations.
ISW analysts highlighted that Medinsky’s approach — focusing on abstract “historical roots” of the war rather than concrete proposals — is consistent with tendencies to stall the process. The Moscow delegation will again be led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, reinforcing the Kremlin’s cautious approach.
From Ukraine’s perspective, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said the Abu Dhabi talks will cover security guarantees, de‑escalation in the Black Sea, energy matters, and prisoner exchanges while preparing an agenda for a future leaders’ meeting. He stressed that the timing of these negotiations is key for Ukraine’s diplomatic and military strategies.
Ukrainian experts remain realistic. Former Ukrainian Ambassador to the EU Andriy Veselovsky, speaking to Ukrinform, warned that the talks would likely not yield immediate results, but it could afford Ukraine a venue to persuade “wide circles” around President Trump to continue backing the country. Veselovsky argued that Ukraine is hoping to leverage the U.S. presence to secure further assistance.
"This will be a chance to convince people around President Trump that Ukraine needs continued support," Veselovsky said.
The brief ceasefire that occurred in Oleshky last month, which allowed for limited humanitarian aid, showed the challenges of achieving broader cooperation. According to Reuters (cited by Xinhua), the ceasefire did not create lasting humanitarian cooperation, highlighting the fragile nature of any sanctions‑free truce.
European involvement remains less certain. Analysts have warned that even if European states are invited to observe, their impact may be limited by the absence of a formal multilateral platform and the ongoing disagreements between the three primary parties.
In sum, while the treaty sessions in Abu Dhabi represent a renewed attempt to break the stalemate, the spectrum of signals from Washington, Moscow and Kyiv suggests that a definitive breakthrough is still uncertain. The negotiation’s future hinges on the willingness of Russia to move beyond power‑play tactics, Ukraine to manage expectations and the United States to maintain diplomatic momentum ahead of the day’s second session.
