In brief
In the first half of 2026, the number of babies born to Japanese nationals rose 0.4%, reaching 320,458 – the first increase for a January–June period in 11 years – according to statistics from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. The modest rise is linked to a rise in marriages in 2024 and 2025 and comes close to the pace of 2025. The trend comes at a time when Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare noted that the decline in births has accelerated faster than earlier projections.
Japan’s first half of 2026 saw a 0.4 percent year‑on‑year rise in births to Japanese nationals, reaching 320,458 babies, a figure described by Xinhua as the first increase for a January‑June period in 11 years, according to government data released on Wednesday.
The figure, reported by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, is the first post‑2004 ascent in the 11‑year count of national births for the January‑to‑June period, a period that has otherwise shown a decline since the early 2000s.
That January‑to‑June 2026 total of 320,458 was close to the pace recorded a year earlier, when Japan’s annual number of births to Japanese nationals hit a record low of 671,236 in 2025, a figure again presented by Xinhua based on the same Ministry survey.
Officials note that the modest uptick is believed to have been partly supported by a rise in marriages in 2024 and 2025, according to data released alongside the birth figures. The Ministry’s statistics show a growing number of couples marrying in the two preceding years, a change that appears to have fed into the higher birth rate observed in the first half of 2026.
The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research had projected in 2023 that Japan’s annual births would fall below 680,000 by 2040; a trend that the agency described as a decline that has accelerated faster than expected, a warning echoed in the Xinhua report.
Compared to the 2025 figure, the 2026 first‑half number suggests the annual total could move toward the 2025 pace, though the Xinhua piece stops short of projecting a complete rebound. The 0.4 percent increase remains modest, marking only a small shift in a demographic trend that has long been dominated by shrinking fertility rates.
Xinhua’s Xinhua Editor Huaxia emphasized that the data “show a modest increase…partly supported by a rise in marriages,” underscoring an early sign that the country’s ageing and low birthrate trend may be slowing, as noted in the release.
Meanwhile, the Ministry’s report, which supplies the statistical foundation for Xinhua’s coverage, notes that Japan’s national births fell below 680,000 annually in 2025, which is the lowest since the country’s demographic trend began to show a sustained decline more than a decade earlier.