Regional Leaders Consider Future of Syria Following Assad's Ouster

As Syria revels in the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad's removal, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken convenes discussions with Arab ministers to assist in a new political framework, addressing both the hope and uncertainty that accompanies this transition.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken arrived in Jordan to meet with Arab leaders on December 14, 2024, as Syria undergoes a significant political shift following the recent overthrow of dictator Bashar al-Assad. The unexpected fall of Assad's government has led to widespread celebrations across Syria, particularly in Idlib, where large crowds gathered after Friday prayers to demonstrate their relief and joy.

Amid this upheaval, the prospect of a new government led by caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir raises questions about the future stability of a nation deeply scarred by years of conflict. Blinken's discussions, taking place in Aqaba, are set to include foreign ministers from several key Arab nations, including Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon, and Egypt, as well as representatives from the Arab League, the EU, and the United Nations.

The meetings aim to develop a framework for a Syria-led political transition, which has gained urgency as regional dynamics shift. Notably, Turkey's influence has increased due to its longstanding support for the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, which has been pivotal in the recent military offensives.

Jordan’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement detailing that while the primary focus remains on facilitating a comprehensive political process in Syria, the absence of any Syrian representatives at the meeting underlines the complexities of this transitional period. Conversations will likely consider the implications of a new government on regional geopolitics, particularly concerning the relationships between Israel, Iran, Lebanon, and Russia—an ally of the former regime.

As the region navigates this tumultuous transition, leaders will need to address humanitarian needs, governance issues, and the potential for a sustainable peace in Syria.