Taiwan Braces for Trump’s Second Term: Heightened Tensions and Strategic Shifts

Following Donald Trump’s re-election, Taiwan is adopting a cautious approach to its ties with the United States, calling off a congratulatory phone call amid rising tensions with China. Analysts suggest that Taiwan is bracing itself for a more complex relationship as Trump pushes for increased Taiwanese defense spending and addresses semiconductor competition.

In November 2024, Taiwan finds itself navigating the complexities of its relationship with the United States after Donald J. Trump’s re-election. The island's leadership is exhibiting caution and realism in its diplomatic approach following a campaign season in which Trump made critical remarks about Taiwan's defense expenditures and its semiconductor industry.

Historically, Trump’s initial victory in 2016 was celebrated by Taiwan’s president, who reached out to extend congratulations. Fast forward to this election, and Taiwan’s current leader, Lai Ching-te, is refraining from requesting a similar phone call, underscoring the increasing apprehension regarding Trump's administration and its implications for Taiwan's security dynamics.

Taiwanese analysts are interpreting this shift as indicative of a more pragmatic stance. Chen Ming-chi, a former adviser on Taiwan's National Security Council, noted that the absence of an explicit outreach to Trump reflects a recognition of the fraught geopolitical landscape. "There is more anxiety this time," he remarked, acknowledging the escalating military maneuvers by China which have heightened fears of unintentional conflict.

In his campaign, Trump called for Taiwan to "pay" for its defense against potential Chinese aggression, reflecting his administration's transactional approach to international relations. Furthermore, he has voiced concerns over Taiwan's dominance in global semiconductors, which he perceives as detrimental to American interests. This presents a test for Taiwan as it balances the need for U.S. support against the risks of antagonizing its formidable neighbor.

As tensions escalate between Beijing and Taipei, the implications of Trump's policies on Taiwan's sovereignty and security will require careful navigation to ensure economic stability and national defense. The trajectory of U.S.-Taiwan relations under a second Trump term remains uncertain, with Taiwanese officials strategizing on how best to manage their critical yet precarious relationship with the changing dynamics of American foreign policy.