As the war in Gaza grinds on, Israel's international isolation appears to be deepening.
Is it approaching a 'South Africa moment', when a combination of political pressure, economic, sporting and cultural boycotts helped to force Pretoria to abandon apartheid?
Or can the right-wing government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu weather the diplomatic storm, leaving Israel free to pursue its goals in Gaza and the occupied West Bank without causing permanent damage to its international standing?
Two former prime ministers, Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert, have already accused Netanyahu of turning Israel into an international pariah.
Thanks to a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court, the number of countries Netanyahu can travel to without the risk of being arrested has shrunk dramatically.
At the UN, several countries, including Britain, France, Australia, Belgium and Canada, have signaled their intentions to recognize Palestine as a state next week.
In response to Israel's recent military actions, especially the strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar, Gulf countries are gathering to discuss a united response, urging nations that maintain relations with Israel to reevaluate.
The summer experiences of starvation in Gaza and the looming Israeli military invasion could further provoke European governments' actions, which are increasingly moving beyond statements of displeasure.
Even Netanyahu acknowledged recently that Israel is experiencing 'a kind of' economic isolation on the global stage. Speaking at a finance ministry event, he attributed this to negative publicity abroad and emphasized the need for Israel to enhance its influence operations in media.
In early September, Belgium imposed a series of sanctions including banning imports from illegal Jewish settlements and restricting consular assistance to Belgians living there. The Spanish government followed up with restrictions including a partial import ban and a de facto arms embargo.
There are several other alarming signs for Israel. Norway's $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund announced divestments from Israeli companies, and the EU is set to impose sanctions on far-right Israeli ministers. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated that the situation in Gaza has 'shaken the conscience of the world.'
Former diplomats point to a potential South African scenario with sanctions that could push Israel to fundamentally re-evaluate its policies. Despite the gravity of recent developments, the international situation remains complex, with the U.S. still affirming strong ties with Israel.
In sports and culture, calls for boycotts are echoing with several countries hinting at withdrawing from the Eurovision Song Contest if Israel is allowed to participate next year. A letter circulating in Hollywood calling for a boycott of Israeli film and media garnered significant support, marking a growing dissent against Israel in creative communities.
Former ambassador Jeremy Issacharoff noted that while Israel’s current standing is vulnerable, some measures targeting all Israelis are counterproductive, potentially alienating moderate voices within Israel.
The upcoming decisions by various nations, especially within the EU, could determine whether Israel's international position deteriorates further or if reparative steps can lead to an impactful change.
