Rising Tensions As Homs Faces Rebel Offensive and Mass Displacement

The ongoing conflict in Syria sees a dramatic escalation as rebel forces capture Hama, prompting mass evacuations from Homs. This report examines the implications for both the Assad regime and civilians caught in the crossfire, highlighting the roles of regional powers and the humanitarian crisis unfolding.

As rebel forces continue their rapid expansion, tens of thousands are fleeing Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, in response to fears that Islamist-led groups will soon advance to the capital, Damascus. The recent fall of Hama, another major city, marks a significant blow to President Bashar al-Assad. Last week’s capture of Aleppo also signaled a worrying trend for Assad, who has lost control of multiple urban centers.

Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, leader of the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), declared to Homs residents, "your time has come." This announcement has heightened the alarm among civilians as the rebel offensive, ongoing for the past nine days, leads to increased violence and instability.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a conflict monitoring organization based in the UK, the death toll from the fighting has surpassed 820, including at least 111 civilians. The escalation has forced many of Assad’s Alawite supporters to abandon Homs, resulting in jammed roads as people attempt to escape the approaching violence.

Following the loss of Hama after intense combat, the Syrian military faces uncertainty in defending Homs, which serves as a strategic link between Damascus and the coastal Alawite stronghold. The civil war, which has claimed over half a million lives since 2011, raises concerns about the potential for further territorial losses for the Assad regime, which has relied heavily on support from Russia and Iran.

Despite this backing, Russian warplanes have intensified strikes on rebel positions, while Iranian-backed militias have dispatched fighters to bolster defenses. However, the preoccupations of these allies cast doubt on Assad’s ability to stabilize the situation.

The UN warns that the fighting further exacerbates an already dire humanitarian crisis in northwestern Syria, with approximately 280,000 people displaced, predominantly women and children. Essential services in Aleppo, which has a population of around two million, face severe disruptions due to shortages of vital supplies.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called on influential actors to take concerted efforts to end the civil war and alleviate the suffering of civilians, as the conflict shows no signs of abating. As Homs remains on the brink of chaos, the complexities of the situation threaten both humanitarian stability and regional security.