In brief
As trading volumes spike before major announcements made by former President Donald Trump, concerns surrounding potential insider trading have emerged. Analysts have noted patterns of significant trading activities that coincide closely with key statements. While some attribute these actions to insider knowledge, others suggest that traders are merely adept at predicting Trump's moves. This report details five notable instances of anomalous trading activity linked to Trump's presidency and explores the challenges in prosecuting insider trading within the current legal framework.
Throughout US President Donald Trump's second term in office, traders have been betting millions of dollars just before he makes major announcements.
The BBC has examined trade volume data on several financial markets and matched them to some of the president's most significant market-moving statements.
It found a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public.
Some analysts say it bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, whereby bets are made by people based on information that is not available to the general public.
Others say the picture is more complicated and that some traders have become more adept at anticipating the president's interventions.
Here are five of the most significant examples.
9 March 2026: 'The war is very complete, pretty much'
Some of the biggest movements have been in oil trades on the futures market. Nine days into the US-Israel war with Iran, Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the conflict was very complete, pretty much.
Market data shows a huge surge of bets were placed on the price of oil falling at 18:29 GMT - a full 47 minutes before the reporter's post. The traders who placed those bets will have made millions of dollars from the movement in oil prices.
23 March 2026: 'Complete and total resolution to hostilities'
On 23 March, Trump posted on Truth Social that Washington had held VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS with Tehran over a COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION to hostilities, leading to unusual oil trade behaviors.
9 April 2025: 'Liberation Day' pause
After announcing a sweeping set of tariffs, stock markets plunged. However, following a 90-day pause on tariffs, the S&P 500 jumped by 9.5%. A pattern of unusual trading preceded this event, prompting inquiries from Democratic senators to the SEC.
3 Jan 2026: Maduro seized
In an unusual development, one user won $436,000 betting on Nicolás Maduro being out of office by the end of January 2026.
28 Feb 2026: Strikes on Iran
Six accounts created on Polymarket made $1.2 million by betting on US strikes on Iran before they were confirmed by Trump.
Insider trading has been illegal since 1933, but enforcing these laws against US officials remains challenging. The White House has warned its staff against using insider information for personal gain, countering any speculation of wrongdoing.
