In brief
A report from the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) cited by Xinhua notes that Mexico’s manufacturing sector is edging marginally into stability while the services and commerce sectors are re-entering expansion. However, the institution warns that the recovery is still fragile and uneven, and that a sustained turnaround has not yet been confirmed. Mexico’s government projects modest growth of 1–2 % by the end of 2026, following a 0.5 % expansion in 2025 largely driven by services.
Mexico’s economy has begun to show signs of a gradual turnaround, according to a report by the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) cited by Xinhua. The institute says the manufacturing sector is stabilising, while the services and commerce sectors are returning to expansion, though the momentum remains uneven and precarious, leaving policymakers cautious about declaring a definitive shift to sustained growth.
The IMEF’s leading indicators for October display a modest lift in the manufacturing index, moving from 49.7 points in September to 49.8 points. The figure is still inside the contraction zone – a 31st consecutive month of decline – but the slight upward movement suggests that the sector’s period of weakness has moderated. In contrast, the non‑manufacturing index, which covers commerce and services, rose from 49.7 to 50.6 points, re‑entering the expansion zone after a prolonged stretch of softness.
In a statement, the IMEF conveyed that “the evolution of their respective trend‑cycle components suggests that the recovery remains fragile and uneven; therefore, it is still premature to confirm a shift in the cycle toward a phase of solid and sustained expansion.”
the evolution of their respective trend-cycle components suggests that the recovery remains fragile and uneven; therefore, it is still premature to confirm a shift in the cycle toward a phase of solid and sustained expansion
Support for the manufacturing gains comes from a rebound in demand and employment, the report notes, but component disparities continue to limit the sector’s overall strength. At the same time, the services sector – which accounted for the bulk of Mexico’s 0.5 % growth in 2025 – remains the primary engine of expansion, while industrial activity remains pressured by a weak United States economy.
Mexico, the continent’s second-largest economy after Brazil, is projected by its own government to grow between 1 and 2 percent by the end of 2026. The forecast follows a modest expansion in 2025, and it reflects the cautious optimism that the country’s economic fundamentals are stabilising, though the outlook remains sensitive to global demand and domestic political developments.
While Xinhua’s reporting frames the early improvement as a step forward, it follows the IMEF’s measured language, underscoring that an entrenched economic rebound has yet to materialise. The report highlights that the recovery appears to be happening in a fragmented way and may require a more sustained shift in policy and external conditions to turn the pattern into a steady trajectory of growth for Mexico’s diverse economy.
