Disillusionment in Eritrea: Three Decades of Isaias Afwerki’s Rule

Once seen as a reformist leader, Isaias Afwerki now stands as a symbol of repression in Eritrea, having consolidated power amidst a backdrop of political stagnation, economic struggles, and a lack of basic freedoms, leaving many citizens seeking refuge abroad.

For many Eritreans, the promise of early years under President Isaias Afwerki has turned into a faded dream as he marks over three decades in power. Once hailed as a new voice among reformist African leaders, the 79-year-old Isaias has long defied positive expectations, retreating to a rural residence far from the capital city, Asmara, where he governs with absolute authority. The cabinet has not convened since 2018, centralizing all power within his grasp, with local officials and citizens alike approaching him in hopes of remedying their persistent struggles.

Isaias’ political journey began with great promise in the 1990s, when he emerged as a rebel leader whose Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) triumphed over Ethiopia in the early 1990s. Freedom fighters honored every year on Martyrs' Day highlighted the optimism woven into Eritrea's independence in 1993, as Isaias took vows to diverge from the oppressive leadership of the continent’s past. He condemned older leaders who clung to power, pledging instead to foster a democratic framework that would escalate socio-economic growth, winning international support and admiration.

However, the anticipated transition towards democracy began to unravel in 1998, following the outbreak of war with Ethiopia over contested borders. Critics argue that Isaias leveraged the conflict to indefinitely postpone elections that were once expected to follow the ratification of a constitution. Promised multiparty political systems remained elusive, as Isaias faced increasing calls from a faction of disgruntled officials—the G-15—demanding greater accountability and democratic reforms. By September 2001, a heavy clampdown on dissent silenced critical journals, leading to the detention of most G-15 members and removing visible keys to democratic change.

Initially buoyed by burgeoning freedoms in the mid-1990s, which saw the emergence of independent newspapers and debates on governance, the political landscape swiftly collapsed post-9/11. Isaias made clear his contempt for organized political parties, claiming instead that the ruling People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) embodied the national spirit. The growing dissatisfaction with his repressive rule earned Eritrea pariah status internationally, pushing Isaias away from diplomacy and into an isolationist stance.

Criticism of his governance is accompanied by the stark realities of an economic landscape hindered by state dominance and a lack of vital infrastructure. While Isaias acknowledged the need for economic improvements, his corresponding rejection of foreign assistance exposes a fear of dependency that contradicts his "self-reliance" ideology. Life for many Eritreans consists of indefinite national service and state violence, propelling hundreds of thousands to pursue dangerous escape routes to find freedom.

Despite unabated criticism, Isaias enjoys segments of support, notably from military circles and party loyalists, many of whom see him as a symbol resisting perceived foreign interference. Even as frustrations escalate within Eritrea, Isaias retreated to his residence to avoid the growing crisis, proclaiming himself beyond the realm of a democratically accountable leader.

With concerns about a potential succession, Isaias’ reign raises questions about stability following his departure. As many await meaningful change, Isaias continues to firmly govern while Eritreans remain trapped in a state of hopeful waiting, and disappointment lingers heavily over the nation’s collective dream for a better future.