President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, who has been at the helm of Belarus since 1994, is preparing for presidential elections this Sunday, where his victory appears all but guaranteed for a seventh consecutive term. In stark contrast to the tumultuous environment of the 2020 elections, which were followed by widespread protests and accusations of fraud, this election cycle showcases a more subdued opposition landscape.
This time, the Belarusian leader has permitted a handful of state-approved candidates to run, yet their campaigns lack any genuine challenge to his authority. They are criticized for merely paying homage to Lukashenko, creating a facade of democracy that attracts skepticism. As Katia Glod, a nonresident fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, puts it, "There is no genuine choice — all we have is this farcical facade of the candidates who all come from pro-government parties."
The election follows a broader trend within the region, mirroring the political situation in Russia where dissenting voices are likewise muted. Lukashenko’s campaign strategy has been minimal; instead of actively persuading voters, he has focused on managing public perception, recently appearing on state media demonstrating Belarusian axes in a calculated display of strength.
After two decades marked by international criticism identifying Belarus as "the last remaining true dictatorship in the heart of Europe," Lukashenko’s primary objective is to reaffirm his control both domestically and in the eyes of Moscow. By sidelining potential rivals and maintaining tight control over the media and state apparatus, he seeks to underscore that any remnants of opposition have been effectively extinguished.
As the election approaches, the landscape remains bleak for any potential challenger, solidifying Lukashenko's grip on power in a country where political freedom and genuine democratic processes have dwindled.
