The recent embrace between Shehbaz Sharif, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia symbolized a pivotal moment in geopolitical alliances as they signed a 'strategic mutual defense agreement'. This pact, lauded by Saudi officials as an institutionalization of pre-existing cooperation, has stirred significant anxiety among Indian politicians and defense analysts.
With India currently locked in a tense relationship with Pakistan that has seen multiple clashes over the contested Kashmir region, any move by Saudi Arabia to underwrite Pakistan's military capabilities is viewed as a direct threat to Indian security. The agreement stipulates that any aggression against either Saudi Arabia or Pakistan would be regarded as aggression against both nations, raising alarms in New Delhi.
Brahma Chellaney, a prominent Indian strategist, expressed dismay, noting that the Saudi decision to formalize the defense pact—even in the face of India's concerns—indicates a strategic shift in Saudi priorities. Former Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal also criticized the pact as a potentially dangerous miscalculation by Riyadh, emphasizing the precarious nature of Pakistan's economic and political stability.
However, not all analysts share this level of concern. Some suggest that Indian worries might be exaggerated given Saudi Arabia's vested interests in maintaining balanced ties with Delhi, highlighted by India being Riyadh's second-largest trade partner.
Michael Kugelman, a foreign policy expert, articulated that while the pact could fortify Pakistan's geopolitical standing, it does not represent an immediate threat to India. Instead, it could lead to a reconfiguration of alliances, particularly in the context of a clamor for broader regional cooperation among Muslim-majority nations.
As geopolitical dynamics continue to evolve in South Asia, it remains uncertain how India will adjust its strategic priorities to address the potential implications of this new defense arrangement.
