Nepal has become the third country in India's immediate neighborhood to see a violent uprising topple its government in recent years. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned after more than 20 people died in clashes with police during anti-government demonstrations triggered by a social media ban.
A nationwide curfew is in place, and the army is attempting to bring the situation under control after protesters stormed parliament and set fire to the homes of several politicians.
For many, the scenes in Kathmandu were reminiscent of the turmoil that gripped Bangladesh last year, and Sri Lanka in 2022. Though Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also India's close neighbors in South Asia, Delhi's relationship with Kathmandu is special because of historic people-to-people, economic and strategic ties. Nepal shares a largely open border of more than 1,750km (466 miles) with five Indian states: Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, Bihar, and West Bengal.
Delhi is keenly watching developments across the border, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi swiftly reacting to the unfolding events. 'The violence in Nepal is heart-rending. I am anguished that many young people have lost their lives,' Modi stated on social media amid the crisis.
Stressing that 'stability, peace, and prosperity of Nepal are of utmost importance,' he appealed to 'all my brothers and sisters in Nepal to support peace,' and convened an emergency security meeting with his cabinet members.
India was caught off-guard by the uprising, much like it was during the event in Sri Lanka that led to the then-president fleeing the country. Any instability in Nepal is a cause for concern for India given its strategic location and proximity to powerful neighbors.
Further complicating the situation is the presence of a large Nepalese diaspora in India, estimated to be around 3.5 million. The countries share deep cultural ties, and family connections span the open border, where citizens can travel without visas or passports.
The recent turmoil has exacerbated existing tensions between India and Nepal, particularly stemming from disputes over territorial claims and allegations of interference from both India and China in Nepalese politics.
While calm has reportedly returned to Kathmandu, the necessity for India to carefully navigate its diplomatic ties with Nepal's upcoming government is paramount. Experts caution against a repeat of prior mistakes illustrated in the Bangladesh political tumult, where India's prior support of certain factions led to strained relations.
India must foster constructive dialogue with the newly emerging political landscape in Nepal while also thoughtfully addressing the concerns of the youthful population that feels disgruntled with their government's response to ongoing issues.
