Trump Inherits a Transformed Middle East Landscape

Since Trump's previous administration, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has undergone significant changes. The rise of new alliances, ongoing conflict, and deepening tensions are set to challenge Trump’s approach to managing relationships in the region.

In the upcoming Trump administration, President-elect Donald J. Trump is expected to face a drastically altered geopolitical environment in the Middle East. His previous administration’s policies focused on crippling Iran's economy and strengthening ties between Arab nations and Israel, culminating in the Abraham Accords. These accords, which normalized relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, included promises of substantial American arms deals to the new allies.

Despite this diplomatic progress, expectations for a formal recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia, a critical player in Arab geopolitics, remain unfulfilled and will be a pivotal challenge for Trump, as it was for President Biden.

The backdrop against which Trump re-enters the Middle East arena is notably stark, marked by escalating tensions following the Hamas attacks on Israel in October 2023 and the ensuing conflict in Gaza. These events could fundamentally reshape relationships and priorities within the region for years to come.

Recently, Trump appointed Steve Witcoff as his special envoy to the Middle East. Witcoff is known for his fervent support of Israel and attended a speech by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Congress in July. Other key appointments, such as Senator Marco Rubio for Secretary of State and Mike Huckabee as the U.S. ambassador to Israel, also reflect a strong pro-Israel stance amid the ongoing war in Gaza.

As Trump assembles his team and determines his agenda, the stark realities of the Middle East's current landscape, coupled with historical tensions and new alliances, will likely define his approach and the U.S.'s role in the region.