Rising Temperatures Challenge India's Agricultural and Economic Stability

As India experiences unprecedented temperature rises, farmers and manufacturers are facing significant challenges. The early onset of summer is forcing businesses to adapt swiftly, impacting crop yields and economic stability. Experts warn that without urgent measures, the ongoing heatwaves could jeopardize both livelihoods and the nation’s economic growth.

Early summer is casting a shadow over India's agricultural and industrial sectors as temperatures soar to unprecedented levels. Data from the Indian Meteorological Department indicates that February 2023 was the hottest February in 125 years, causing alarm among farmers and manufacturers alike. In Ludhiana, a city known for its textile industry, Nitin Goel's family clothing business is pivoting from winter gear to t-shirts as winter seasons shorten due to rising temperatures. Over the past five years, the company's sales have halved, exacerbated this season by a 10% decline, compelling Goel to offer deeper discounts and change his business model entirely.

Retailers' hesitance to claim orders further adds to the struggles for Goel and other manufacturers. The shift towards a "sale or return" strategy has transferred significant risks away from retailers but onto producers, raising concerns over the future viability of small enterprises in the region.

Meanwhile, on India's western coast, the iconic Alphonso mango farmers report a dismal 30% yield compared to normal, forcing some to cut back on labor due to insufficient work. Vidyadhar Joshi, a local mango grower, laments the necessity of additional irrigation and fertilizer costs, which threaten to reduce profits further.

Other crops are also under siege as heatwaves put winter staples like wheat, chickpeas, and rapeseed at risk. While the agriculture minister downplays concerns about production slumps, experts from the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) caution that heatwaves could replicate last year's substantial yield reductions, potentially necessitating reliance on expensive imports for staples.

The impact of climate change is not restricted to agriculture. Reservoir capacities in northern India are alarmingly low, dipping to 28% compared to 37% from the previous year. This decline raises concerns about future food production and even the dairy sector, where milk yields are reportedly dropping by up to 15% in certain areas.

As inflation looms, the implications of agricultural setbacks could ripple across the economy, impacting growth at a time when urban households are reducing expenditures. CEEW estimates that as much as 5.8% of daily working hours may be lost to heat stress by 2030, with a staggering potential income loss across sectors, including agriculture, pegged at $159 billion in 2021.

India's vulnerability to climate change underscores an urgent need for measures such as improved weather forecasting, agricultural insurance, and revised cropping calendars. Without decisive action, the nation risks enduring heatwaves that threaten both economic stability and public health.