Democrats already had a lot to worry about in the 2026 California governor's race, an election they would typically expect to win easily: Too many candidates. Low name recognition. Voter apathy.
Then on Sunday, their leading candidate, Representative Eric Swalwell, faced with accusations of sexual assault and misconduct, dropped out of the contest, even as he denied the allegations. His exit threw the Democrats into further chaos and left the party facing a previously unthinkable possibility: could Republicans shut them entirely out of the general election in one of the bluest states in the US?
This would be an unforced error of historic proportions if Democrats fail to coordinate so badly that a Republican wins in a state where Donald Trump's approval rating is a little less than 30%, said Eric Schickler, a political science professor at the University of California, Berkeley.
The San Francisco Chronicle and CNN recently published allegations from several women about Swalwell's conduct, prompting his most notable supporters to withdraw their backing. On Monday, Swalwell announced he would resign from Congress, hours after the US House of Representatives Ethics Committee opened an investigation. He acknowledged his mistakes in judgement while vowing to fight the serious, false allegations against him.
However, the Democrats' issues in California predate these accusations. The current governor, Gavin Newsom, cannot seek reelection due to term limits, and other prominent Democrats, like former Vice President Kamala Harris, have decided not to run. This leaves eight lesser-known candidates struggling to gain traction in an expensive media landscape.
In March, an opinion poll revealed that two Republican candidates were garnering significant support, potentially leading to a situation where no Democrats appear on the gubernatorial ballot in November. This could result in a significant political shift, as California is known for its progressive legislation that influences national policies.
Following Swalwell's departure, Democratic contenders like former Congresswoman Katie Porter and billionaire climate advocate Tom Steyer are emerging as potential leaders, though neither has secured strong public support yet. Political experts note that star power is lacking among the Democratic candidates, complicating their ability to distinguish their platforms.
In contrast, California Republicans are also facing challenges, with no clear front-runners establishing themselves before the primary. Political observers noted that Trump's endorsement of Hilton could potentially shift Republican voter support.
Ultimately, whether the Democrats can rally around a single candidate remains uncertain in a race that has taken unexpected twists and could dramatically impact the broader political landscape beyond California.
