Current State of Peace Efforts in Ukraine Amidst Diplomatic Maneuvers

Thu Nov 27 2025 13:08:29 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

Diplomatic discussions surrounding peace in Ukraine have seen fluctuating optimism, particularly from U.S. actors like Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. However, challenges remain, especially in reconciling territorial disputes and security guarantees.

Recent diplomatic efforts over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine have generated mixed reactions, with U.S. officials expressing hope for a peace deal while Russian responses remain cautious. Both Trump's remarks and Zelensky's optimism highlight potential advancement; however, deep-rooted issues regarding territory and accountability create significant hurdles. Negotiations are ongoing, and the next steps remain uncertain, as European leaders seek to influence the outcomes while aiming for a sustainable resolution.

Are we any closer to peace in Ukraine?

After a frantic, often confusing few days of diplomacy, Donald Trump seems to think so.

We're getting very close to a deal, he told reporters on Tuesday.

For his part, Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelensky, who had looked and sounded grim over the weekend, said there were now many prospects that can make the path to peace real.

There are significant results, he said, after reviewing the results of Sunday's key discussions in Geneva, and there is still much work to be done.

But from the Russians, [...] Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Wednesday that Moscow viewed some elements of the latest draft positively but many require special discussions among experts.

Given the gulf that exists between Ukraine and Russia on so many key issues – including territory, Nato membership, who should pay for Ukraine's reconstruction and how will those involved in war crimes be held accountable – it is hard to see all the necessary pieces falling into place anytime soon.

Last Wednesday already seems like aeons ago. That is when a leaked draft of a 28-point US plan to end the war first emerged.

The plan, whose references to Ukraine giving up territory and limiting the size of its military led some to describe it as a Russian wish list, caused consternation in Kyiv and sent European diplomats scrambling to limit the perceived damage.

In some ways, it felt like a re-run of events in August, when anxious European leaders rushed to Washington to bend Trump's ear after the American president rolled out the red carpet to Putin in Alaska.

By the weekend, the Europeans had drafted a counter-proposal, also 28 points long, which replaced the blunt territorial concessions of the US plan with negotiations on territorial swaps and stiffened the language on security guarantees, a key concern of Kyiv.

A joint US-Ukrainian statement, issued after the talks wrapped up, spoke of highly productive discussions, saying any future agreement must deliver a sustainable and just peace.

Ukrainian officials sounded relieved too. The First Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergiy Kyslytsya, said the latest version of the plan had been slimmed down to just 19 points, with the most contentious issues – territory and Ukraine's future relations with Nato – put off for Trump and Zelensky to decide.

Amid recriminations over how the original 28-point version had been leaked (with fingers pointing in multiple directions), a tight veil of secrecy has been drawn around the latest version.

With Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff due in Moscow next week and talk of Zelensky paying another visit to the White House, it seems the pace of diplomacy is not about to let up.

But where are we?

We are now on a fast track to something, says Daniel Fried, former US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs.

Ambassador Fried says last week's 28-point US plan was a hot mess but that the impetus behind it is real.

The sense of dread which settled over Kyiv last week - which caused Zelensky to observe that Ukraine was facing one of the most difficult moments in its history – has lifted.

But if Kyiv feels it has successfully countered some of the worst of what was being demanded – and we still do not know how much – there are plenty of lingering concerns.

Chief among them: what sort of security guarantees can it expect to receive if it finally strikes a deal with the country that launched an unprovoked invasion of its territory and still seems to covet more?

In response to the original US document's rather vague promise to offer reliable security guarantees, European leaders spoke of a US guarantee that mirrors Article 5, a reference to NATO's principle of collective defense.

This critical aspect of the plan is clearly still a work in progress.

Given Trump's mercurial approach to the war in Ukraine, Putin's lingering ambitions and Zelensky's domestic difficulties, it is extremely difficult to know where this process goes next.

But it might be overly optimistic to think we are near the end.

We're still in the middle of this process, says Leslie Shedd, another of the Atlantic Council's non-resident fellows.

There's certainly a long way to go still.