In brief
The Old Brick Farm in Chelsea, Michigan, has remained free from outbreaks of avian diseases like bird flu this Thanksgiving, but the shrinking U.S. turkey flock—at its lowest in 40 years—has consequence for hatcheries and prices. Overall turkey prices are projected to rise by 44% this season, driven by decreased supply and increased consumer demand.
As Thanksgiving approaches, the Old Brick Farm in Chelsea, Michigan, owned by fifth-generation farmer Larry Doll, has managed to avoid recent outbreaks of bird flu and avian metapneumovirus. Both diseases have significantly impacted the broader turkey population, leading to the lowest U.S. turkey flock size in four decades.
Doll emphasizes the importance of maintaining a clean operation, including avoiding the introduction of animals from outside farms. Despite his success in keeping his farm disease-free, Doll feels the repercussions of the nationwide poultry crisis as evident in the smaller quantities of chicks available from hatcheries.
“If you don’t get your order in early, you’re not going to get it,” he stated, highlighting the competitive nature of securing turkey stocks this Thanksgiving.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects wholesale turkey prices will rise by 44% this year, creating challenges for consumers seeking affordable meals. In retail, some grocery stores are attempting to ease the financial burden by offering promotions on Thanksgiving staples, even depicting a disparity in prices across different markets.
Several consumer groups, including the American Farm Bureau Federation, have reported mixed trends on Thanksgiving meal costs. While overall prices for a basket of typical Thanksgiving items have reportedly increased, varying estimates show a decline in specific items like frozen turkeys, although the fluctuating costs of groceries remain a concern due to factors such as tariffs on imports impacting basic staples.
The turkey market reflects deeper economic patterns, where avian diseases are not the only contributors to rising prices. Higher demand for turkey has increased as prices of other meats surged due to inflation, leading many consumers to seek alternative protein options for their holiday meals.
Doll expresses pride in providing a quality turkey for his customers, stating, “I just love it, to think that I’m not only providing them food, but the centerpiece of their Thanksgiving dinner.” This also sheds light on the enduring relationships built between farmers and their communities, as they work through the challenges of the current agricultural landscape.
