Iran is 10 days into one of the most extreme internet shutdowns in history, with 92 million citizens cut off from all internet services and even disruption to phone and text messaging.
The Iranian government cut off services on 8 January, apparently to stifle dissent and prevent international scrutiny of a government crack down on protesters.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the internet was cut off in response to what he described as externally directed terrorist operations.
The government has not said when internet services will return, but new reports suggest that, behind the scenes, the authorities may be making plans to restrict it permanently.
On 15 January, the news website IranWire reported that government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told journalists that international web access will not be available until at least the Iranian New Year in late March.
Internet freedom observers at FilterWatch believe the government is hastily implementing new systems and rules to cut Iran off from the international internet.
According to them, the expectation of reopening international internet access is dwindling, stating that even when it does return, it will not resemble previous access. Reports from journalists indicate that internet access is unlikely to be restored anytime soon.
From temporary outage to communication black hole
Iran has maintained a tight grip over the internet for many years, blocking most western social media apps and external news websites like BBC News, though many have managed to access platforms like Instagram using VPNs.
Internet freedom campaigners at Access Now assert that shutdowns have historically been used to conceal government violence and brutal crackdowns on protests, exemplified by the nationwide internet blackouts during protests in November 2019 and September 2022.
The current blackout, lasting longer than previous incidents, has had a significant impact on e-commerce and daily activities across Iran.
Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) provides grim statistics, with over 3,300 confirmed deaths among protesters, over 24,000 arrests, and reports of the real number being potentially much higher due to restricted communication avenues.
Future of Internet in Iran
FilterWatch warns that Iran's latest shutdown could herald a progressive move towards extreme digital isolation. Technical controls might soon be established where internet access would only be granted through a government-approved vetting process.
With parallels drawn to similar practices in Russia and China, Iran might implement a tiered internet system that resembles the Great Chinese Firewall, establishing stringent controls over what citizens can access online.
Despite the growing repression, technological advancements such as satellite internet services may offer avenues for bypassing such restrictions. Notably, Starlink has provided some citizens with satellite connectivity amid government efforts to jam signals.
Experts caution that political frameworks and potentially uneven implementation may affect the realization of such extensive control, highlighting that while the technology might enable these measures, the political will behind them is what truly matters.
